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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

China landfall typhoon forecast for the 2005 typhoon season
(Issued on April 1, 2005)

Predictors:
1. Snow cover index (January - March). Domain: 33-37 N, 91-95 E.
2. Arctic Oscillation Index (February-March)
3. ENSO JMA index (May - July)

Data range: 1976 - 2005
Methodology: Poisson statistical model.

Summary of Prediction:
Climatic indices prior to March 31, 2005 indicate that the 2005 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be more active than normal. We estimate that China (including the islands of Taiwan and Hainan), will experience 4-5 landfalling hurricanes (comparing with an average is 3-4), which is about 125 percent of the 29-year (1976-2004) average.

 CFDL © 2003-2005 Created and maintained by Xiaoming Liu. May. 23, 2005
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