Hurricane Irene (2011)

This page contains forecasts from both the control WRF run (traditional sponge zone nesting technique) and the SSDA (scale-selective data assimilation, Xie et al. 2010; Liu et al. 2011) WRF run. GFS half degree real time forecasts are used to drive the regional WRF runs.

Due to the relatively coarse resolution (12-km) and no bogus vortex and data assimilation at initial time, intensity forecasts especially for early model hours are not accurate.

Simulations of Irene (From 00Z24Aug to 00Z29Aug, 2011) by using of GFS half degree analyses were updated.


Simulations of Irene (From 00Z24Aug to 00Z29Aug, 2011)


Simulated storm track for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Track position error for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Simulated maximum wind for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Track position error for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Simulated minimum sea-level pressure for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Track position error for the CTRL and SSDA runs


Hindcast of maximum storm surge based on best track data


48 hour forecast of surface fields from a triple-nested (36-12-4 km) WRF run, if available.

Init time: Surface field: Domain


Forecasts initialized at 00 UTC (04 EDT) August 27 (6-hourly)


Forecast Intensity from the SSDA run

Forecast Intensity from the CTRL run

Detailed track information:

SSDA run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.16 -77.05 976.6 37.3
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.25 -76.65 954.9 40.0
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.56 -76.37 950.0 45.7
2011-08-27_18:00:00 35.65 -76.36 952.2 34.5
2011-08-28_00:00:00 36.73 -75.53 957.0 33.0
2011-08-28_06:00:00 37.92 -74.95 959.8 30.5
2011-08-28_12:00:00 39.60 -74.23 964.2 28.7
2011-08-28_18:00:00 41.12 -73.00 968.2 28.1
2011-08-29_00:00:00 43.18 -70.84 973.6 25.9

CTRL run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.16 -77.05 976.6 37.3
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.25 -76.65 954.9 40.0
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.56 -76.37 950.5 45.8
2011-08-27_18:00:00 35.76 -76.36 951.5 36.0
2011-08-28_00:00:00 36.73 -75.53 957.4 32.4
2011-08-28_06:00:00 38.35 -74.94 958.6 31.2
2011-08-28_12:00:00 39.96 -74.33 962.8 29.1
2011-08-28_18:00:00 41.45 -73.27 969.3 26.9
2011-08-29_00:00:00 42.80 -72.04 977.4 24.5


Forecasts initialized at 00 UTC (04 EDT) August 26 (6-hourly)


Forecast Intensity from the SSDA run

Forecast Intensity from the CTRL run

Detailed track information:

SSDA run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.53 -77.14 981.7 40.4
2011-08-26_06:00:00 28.43 -77.44 954.1 45.2
2011-08-26_12:00:00 29.75 -77.56 950.1 51.2
2011-08-26_18:00:00 30.84 -77.44 947.5 50.4
2011-08-27_00:00:00 31.83 -77.18 945.7 47.4
2011-08-27_06:00:00 32.70 -76.91 943.1 48.8
2011-08-27_12:00:00 33.80 -76.51 943.6 47.6
2011-08-27_18:00:00 34.88 -76.10 945.9 43.3
2011-08-28_00:00:00 36.29 -75.40 949.4 41.3
2011-08-28_06:00:00 37.59 -74.83 951.3 36.2
2011-08-28_12:00:00 39.20 -74.08 955.5 36.4
2011-08-28_18:00:00 40.68 -72.88 959.3 30.9
2011-08-29_00:00:00 42.64 -70.59 966.5 29.6

CTRL run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.53 -77.14 981.7 40.4
2011-08-26_06:00:00 28.43 -77.44 954.1 45.2
2011-08-26_12:00:00 29.75 -77.56 950.2 51.9
2011-08-26_18:00:00 30.95 -77.31 947.8 49.4
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.05 -77.05 945.8 48.7
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.36 -76.65 945.7 47.7
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.67 -76.11 947.4 44.4
2011-08-27_18:00:00 36.08 -75.68 950.8 37.7
2011-08-28_00:00:00 37.37 -74.70 955.5 37.5
2011-08-28_06:00:00 38.98 -73.81 957.2 35.4
2011-08-28_12:00:00 40.90 -73.01 961.4 30.6
2011-08-28_18:00:00 42.28 -72.36 964.1 29.6
2011-08-29_00:00:00 43.28 -70.54 973.2 26.9


Forecasts initialized at 00 UTC (04 EDT) August 25 (6-hourly)


Forecast Intensity from the SSDA run

Forecast Intensity from the CTRL run

Detailed track information:

SSDA run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-25_00:00:00 23.38 -75.19 987.3 37.3
2011-08-25_06:00:00 24.37 -75.76 962.2 46.4
2011-08-25_12:00:00 25.26 -76.72 956.2 47.8
2011-08-25_18:00:00 26.13 -77.32 952.6 47.6
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.12 -77.32 950.1 47.9
2011-08-26_06:00:00 28.21 -77.44 950.6 45.9
2011-08-26_12:00:00 29.42 -77.56 949.5 47.3
2011-08-26_18:00:00 30.29 -77.44 947.3 49.2
2011-08-27_00:00:00 31.17 -77.05 946.5 47.4
2011-08-27_06:00:00 32.04 -76.66 944.8 47.4
2011-08-27_12:00:00 33.25 -76.26 943.6 49.4
2011-08-27_18:00:00 34.34 -75.85 944.7 45.6
2011-08-28_00:00:00 35.64 -75.15 947.9 42.1
2011-08-28_06:00:00 36.83 -74.71 949.5 39.5
2011-08-28_12:00:00 38.55 -73.97 950.4 37.7
2011-08-28_18:00:00 40.26 -73.05 952.2 34.0
2011-08-29_00:00:00 42.45 -71.19 960.5 30.0

CTRL run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-25_00:00:00 23.38 -75.19 987.3 37.3
2011-08-25_06:00:00 24.37 -75.76 962.2 46.4
2011-08-25_12:00:00 25.36 -76.71 956.4 47.1
2011-08-25_18:00:00 26.35 -77.32 955.3 45.8
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.34 -77.32 952.6 47.1
2011-08-26_06:00:00 28.65 -77.56 952.0 46.2
2011-08-26_12:00:00 30.07 -77.56 953.2 45.4
2011-08-26_18:00:00 31.28 -77.44 950.4 46.3
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.37 -76.92 949.7 46.0
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.47 -76.52 949.8 46.5
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.88 -75.84 952.5 39.5
2011-08-27_18:00:00 36.07 -75.14 952.9 39.8
2011-08-28_00:00:00 37.36 -74.01 954.1 40.9
2011-08-28_06:00:00 38.96 -73.25 954.3 38.2
2011-08-28_12:00:00 41.09 -72.29 957.2 34.4
2011-08-28_18:00:00 42.77 -71.31 960.5 30.2
2011-08-29_00:00:00 43.90 -70.19 970.6 27.0


Forecasts initialized at 00 UTC (04 EDT) August 24 (6-hourly)


Forecast Intensity from the SSDA run

Forecast Intensity from the CTRL run

Detailed track information:

SSDA run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-24_00:00:00 20.86 -71.42 994.7 33.4
2011-08-24_06:00:00 21.45 -72.43 971.2 40.1
2011-08-24_12:00:00 22.13 -73.10 965.9 41.0
2011-08-24_18:00:00 22.81 -74.02 963.0 43.7
2011-08-25_00:00:00 23.59 -74.83 958.4 46.5
2011-08-25_06:00:00 24.48 -75.64 956.7 46.7
2011-08-25_12:00:00 25.58 -76.11 955.5 45.3
2011-08-25_18:00:00 26.90 -76.70 954.2 47.7
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.99 -76.94 954.5 47.2
2011-08-26_06:00:00 29.20 -77.19 956.5 43.8
2011-08-26_12:00:00 30.18 -77.06 958.0 40.2
2011-08-26_18:00:00 31.39 -76.67 953.5 45.3
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.48 -76.53 950.6 47.4
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.35 -76.12 949.0 47.7
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.66 -75.57 948.1 46.6
2011-08-27_18:00:00 35.96 -75.14 950.5 40.8
2011-08-28_00:00:00 37.36 -74.29 952.7 42.1
2011-08-28_06:00:00 38.86 -73.54 954.9 39.1
2011-08-28_12:00:00 40.47 -72.89 960.2 31.7
2011-08-28_18:00:00 41.84 -72.24 964.7 30.1
2011-08-29_00:00:00 42.86 -70.87 974.6 25.8

CTRL run results
Time (UTC) Lat Lon MinSLP (hPa) MaxWind (m/s)
2011-08-24_00:00:00 20.86 -71.42 994.7 33.4
2011-08-24_06:00:00 21.45 -72.43 971.2 40.1
2011-08-24_12:00:00 22.13 -73.10 965.9 41.0
2011-08-24_18:00:00 22.81 -74.02 963.0 43.7
2011-08-25_00:00:00 23.59 -74.83 958.4 46.5
2011-08-25_06:00:00 24.48 -75.64 956.7 46.7
2011-08-25_12:00:00 25.58 -76.11 955.5 45.3
2011-08-25_18:00:00 26.90 -76.70 954.2 47.7
2011-08-26_00:00:00 27.99 -76.94 954.5 47.2
2011-08-26_06:00:00 29.20 -77.19 956.5 43.8
2011-08-26_12:00:00 30.18 -77.06 958.0 40.2
2011-08-26_18:00:00 31.39 -76.67 953.5 45.3
2011-08-27_00:00:00 32.48 -76.53 950.6 47.4
2011-08-27_06:00:00 33.35 -76.12 949.0 47.7
2011-08-27_12:00:00 34.66 -75.57 948.1 46.6
2011-08-27_18:00:00 35.96 -75.14 950.5 40.8
2011-08-28_00:00:00 37.36 -74.29 952.7 42.1
2011-08-28_06:00:00 38.86 -73.54 954.9 39.1
2011-08-28_12:00:00 40.47 -72.89 960.2 31.7
2011-08-28_18:00:00 41.84 -72.24 964.7 30.1
2011-08-29_00:00:00 42.86 -70.87 974.6 25.8


Disclaimer: Results presented herein are for scientific information exchange only. Forecasts are expected to contain certain level of uncertainty due to scientific limitations. Users are at their own risk for using the forecasts in any decision making.