2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Lian Xie
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU

Danny Modlin, and Montserrat Fuentes
Department of Statistics, NCSU

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be above normal. The expected number of named storms developing in the Atlantic basin is significantly higher than the climatologies of the last two decades; however, the number of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms along the US Gulf and Atlantic coasts are not significantly different from the climatologies of the last two decades. From June 1 to November 30, 2010, we expect 14-19 named storms to be formed in the Atlantic basin, which is higher that climatologies of the past 20 years and that of the past fifty years (9-11 storms). 7-11 storms are expected to become hurricanes. There is an approximate 80 percent chance that at least one tropical cyclone will hit the U.S. Southeast Coast, and an approximate 70 percent chance that it will be of hurricane status. For the Gulf of Mexico, we expect 4-7 named storms to be formed, of which 2-4 become hurricanes. 3-6 named storms are expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast. There is an approximate 80 percent chance at least 1 of the landfalling storms will be of hurricane status. The chance for at least 1 major hurricane to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast is approximately 55 percent.

For more details, please refer to our complete report. [PDF]

WRAL.com reported this outlook on April 26th, 2010.

Disclaimer: Results presented herein are for scientific information exchange only. Forecasts are expected to contain certain level of uncertainty due to scientific limitations. Users are at their own risk for using the forecasts in any decision making.