2015 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Lian Xie*, Marcela Alfaro-Cordoba#, Bin Liu*, and Montserrat Fuentes#
*Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
#Department of Statistics
North Carolina State University
(April 16th, 2015)

Summary of 2015 Forecast Results

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be below to the long-term average (1951-2014) and the average of the past 20 years (1995-2014). Specific forecasts are described below.

  1. Expected number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) developing in the Atlantic Basin: 4-6 (1950-2013 average: 10.8)
  2. Expected number of hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 1-3 (1950-2013 average: 6.2)
  3. Expected number of major hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 1 (1950-2013 average: 2.7)
  4. Expected number of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea: 0-1 (1950-2013 average: 2.6)
  5. Expected number of hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea: 0-1 (1950-2013 average: 1.4)
  6. Expected number of major hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea: 0 (1950-2013 average: 0.8)
  7. Expected number of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico: 1-2 (1950-2013 average: 3.1)

Note: Range of expected values obtained using a 95 percent prediction interval for the number of counts. Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and ends on November 30. Atlantic basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

For more details, please refer to our technical report. [PDF]

Disclaimer: Results presented herein are for scientific information exchange only. Forecasts are expected to contain certain level of uncertainty due to scientific limitations. Users are at their own risk for using the forecasts in any decision making.